Pac-12 bowl projections: Utah and Oregon jump into CFP while WSU qualifies for Independence

The Pac-12 remained intact in one significant respect for the next two seasons. Unless they qualify for the College Football Playoff, all former Pac-12 bowl-eligible teams will participate in conference-affiliated bowl games from previous years.

Binding contracts and complicated logistics forced the schools, despite their official divorce, to share custody of the Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls.

There is one notable change in the selection process – two notable changes, in fact:

• Expanding the College Football Playoff creates the potential for more than one of the 12 teams to qualify for the sport’s biggest event, opening up opportunities for non-playoff teams to participate in more prestigious bowls than he could otherwise.

• Before the Pac-12 collapsed, conference record was used to determine the seeding hierarchy. But since the 12 teams will be spread across four conferences next season (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12), overall records will dictate which teams go where.

Featuring our fearless bowl projections.

(Nonqualifiers: Arizona State, Oregon State, Stanford and UCLA.)

College Football Playoff

Team: Utah (Auto Qualifier/Big 12 Champion)

Comment: The Utes return many of their core pieces and, most importantly, have a manageable schedule. If they finish with one or two losses and no conference title, the at-large path in the CFP would be available. That being said, we see them as the team to beat in the Big 12 as long as quarterback Cam Rising stays healthy. It would be quite an accomplishment to celebrate Kyle Whittingham’s 20th (and possibly final) season.

College Football Playoff

Team: Oregon (At Large/Big Ten Champion)

Comment: The expectations are such that not making the CFP would be considered a major disappointment for Dan Lanning’s team. The Ducks could earn the Big Ten’s automatic bid by winning the conference, which would likely require them to beat Ohio State in the title game. The teams play Oct. 12 in Eugene, so a win would widen Oregon’s path to the CFP, but may make a second win over the Buckeyes — in a road atmosphere in Indianapolis — less likely.

Alamo Bowl

Team: USC (vs. Big 12)

Comment: The hot line doesn’t expect a high-level season from USC, not having a schedule that includes LSU, Notre Dame, Michigan and Penn State. Seven wins is reasonable. Maybe eight. But Alamo would jump at the chance to take on the Trojans for the first time in bowl history. And given its longstanding aversion to repeat entrants, Alamo would likely avoid Arizona at (almost) all costs.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Arizona (vs. ACC)

Comment: As in the past, protections are included in the Pac-12 selection process: a team can jump another team as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in overall record. That policy could come into play with the Wildcats if they have a slightly better overall record than Colorado, which would be more attractive to bowl officials because of Deion Sanders. If the Wildcats are 8-4 and the Buffs are 6-6, the former would take priority.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Colorado (vs. SEC)

Comment: To be clear: We don’t expect Colorado’s season to achieve the success typically associated with Las Vegas Bowl participants (ie, eight or nine wins). But our skeptical outlook for schools in their new conferences — and for Washington State and Oregon State — means mediocre teams will fare better with bowl assignments. And if the Buffs are eligible, they will be coveted.

Sun Bowl

Team: Washington (vs. ACC)

Comment: The Huskies could prove the antithesis of Colorado’s postseason — a team invited with reluctance, not enthusiasm. Why? Because anything short of a return to the playoffs will be viewed as a disappointment to UW fans and may temper ticket purchases and hotel reservations. But the aforementioned pick protection still applies: There’s only so far the Huskies could fall.

LA Bowl

Team: Cal (vs. Mountain West)

Comment: We predict a mediocre season with the Bears going six wins and reaching the bottom tier of bowl assignments. Independence won’t want them, not after the 34-14 clunker in Shreveport, La., last season. And the LA Bowl could jump on the bandwagon because Cal won’t be making an appearance in Southern California, home to thousands of alumni, during the regular season.

Independence Bowl

Team: Washington State (vs. Army)

Comment: The Cougars and Beavers will be nice storylines if either of them qualify for the postseason. We give WSU a substantially better chance than OSU to win six games, largely due to continuity of practice and a more manageable schedule. But any bowl appearance (for either school) would make for a successful year in their precarious existence.