Black money ad exaggerates Senator Bob Casey’s role in inflation

This election season, WESA and PublicSource are analyzing the political advertising you see on air and online. Look for the spot check on Thursday.

The place

“Stop reckless spending” is a 30 second TV commercial which criticizes US Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, for his votes in favor of President Joe Biden’s domestic spending priorities. The ad claims that “wasteful” spending authorized by Democrats in Congress and Biden is responsible for high inflation in recent years and that Casey voted to allow “illegals” to collect federal stimulus checks.

When was it released? August 6

How many broadcasts? 279 times in Pittsburgh and more than 1,000 in Pennsylvania, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.

Who pays? One Nation, a so-called “dark money” nonprofit group whose tax status exempts it from disclosing its funding sources. Public filings from the IRS show the group is led by Steven Law, who served as deputy secretary of labor under President George W. Bush and he has a track record of supporting Republicans running for Senate.

How much does it cost? $1.7 million, a fraction of the $18 million One Nation spent on other ads with similar messages in Pennsylvania, according to AdImpact.

claims

The ad begins by stating that the country is facing a “cost of living crisis” and claims that Casey’s legislative votes have caused prices to rise. This claim is attributed to an Associated Press article from March 2022. It’s not entirely clear which AP story it’s coming from, but that month the AP reported an inflation rate approaching 8%, citing a number of causes, including Russian invasion of Ukraine, big consumer. spending, wage increases, supply shortages and pandemic-driven government spending.

A narrator explains that Casey voted with President Joe Biden “98 percent of the time,” including on the trillion-dollar spending bills the ad calls wasteful. These statements are attributed to the voting records of the US Senate.

The ad also says Casey voted to allow “illegals” to take tax dollars in the form of COVID relief checks; this part is layered over video footage of seemingly chaotic scenes at the southern border, alongside a video of Casey putting a piece of paper in his pocket.

The ad does not mention Casey’s opponent in the November election, Republican Dave McCormick, and instead of urging voters one way or the other, it advocates passage of Senate Bill 575. That billThe Fight Inflation Through Balanced Budgets Act was introduced in March 2023 and is sponsored by Republican Senators Mike Braun of Indiana, Ted Cruz of Texas, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Rick Scott of Florida. It aims to reduce federal deficits by allowing senators to block unbalanced budgets and cost overruns, and did not receive a vote.

The facts

A representative for Casey’s re-election campaign declined to comment for this story.

The ad correctly notes that Casey voted with Biden almost all the time. ABC News analyzed the Senate votes on which Biden took a clear stand in 2023 and found that Casey voted with the president 99 percent of the time. That number was 98% in the first two years of Biden’s presidency, FiveThirtyEight foundincluding votes on Biden’s signature initiatives on COVID relief, infrastructure and climate change.

Whether those votes caused the abnormally high rates of inflation experienced over the past few years is a more nuanced question — and many economists say it can’t be pinned on the Senate’s actions.

Melanie Zaber, a Pittsburgh-based economist at the RAND Corporation, said the academic evidence shows that America’s bailout it had a “small role” in the increase in inflation, but was not the main cause.

“It’s pretty well established in the research community that supply chain issues and energy costs related to the war in Ukraine are linked to inflation globally,” Zaber said.

The microchip shortage that has affected the auto industry has also played a role, she said.

Economists wrote in a column published by the Brookings Institution this month that most of the inflation in the COVID era has increased was caused by supply-side factorssuch as supply chain and shipping delays that began during the peak of the pandemic.

“The argument that policy incentives have been excessive is weak,” the economists wrote.

Not all economists have absolved Biden’s policies (and therefore Casey’s votes) in the inflation blame game. Some experts say the US would have experienced high inflation regardless, but the spending packages pushed the rate up, maybe with 3 percentage points added.

Casey and several other Democrats went on the offensive against claims like those in this ad, arguing that rising corporate prices are to blame for rising inflation.

But researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco poured cold water on that theory in May when they written in an economic letter that aggregate markups have remained “essentially unchanged” since the start of the post-COVID recovery, except in a few areas such as autos and fuel.

“As such, rising markups have not been a primary driver of the recent rise and subsequent decline in inflation during the current recovery,” the researchers wrote.

Zaber said there is little evidence to support the idea that so-called “greed” is a driving force behind recent inflation and that it “pales in comparison” to supply chain problems and energy costs.

The ad’s claim that Casey voted to allow illegal immigrants to collect COVID aid is attributed to his vote on a proposed amendment to the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). Amendmentoffered by Republican Sen. Todd Young of Indiana, was intended to “prevent legislation that would allow illegal immigrants to receive economic impact payments.” Casey was one of 42 Democrats who voted against the amendment; eight Democrats joined 50 Republicans in endorsing it.

The vast majority of undocumented immigrants were not eligible to receive COVID stimulus payments, in part because they could only be issued to people with valid Social Security numbers.

A spokesperson for One Nation wrote in an email to PublicSource and WESA that ARPA gave funding to states with broad discretion over its use, and some of those states reduced checks on residents who were ineligible for federal checks from because of immigration status.

PublicSource’s access to AdImpact data on political advertising is made possible through a partnership with WESA and support from The Heinz Endowments.

Charlie Wolfson is PublicSource’s local government reporter. He can be reached at [email protected].